Because a new medical procedure has been shown to be effective inthe early detection of an illness, a medical screening of thepopulation is proposed.

Because a new medical procedure has been shown to be effective inthe early detection of an illness, a medical screening of thepopulation is proposed.

The probability that the testcorrectly identifies someone with the illness as positive is 0.99,and the probability that the test correctly identifies someonewithout the illness as negative is 0.95. The evidence of theillness in the general population is 0.0001. You take thetest and the result is positive. What is the probability thatyou have the illness?

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