Your Job: Assuming oil consumption in the US doesn’t increase, but instead remains relatively constant at 20 million barrels/day,
When peak unconventional oil production will likely occur in Texas based on estimated proven reserves using today’s unconventional technology.
What the average rate of production decline will be with time (bbls/day) in Texas assuming these fields go into decline as other fields have in the past (perhaps use iea data as a guide).
Where most future oil production will likely occur in North America (US, Mexico, Canada—use both projections and eia data) to maintain/sustain U.S. supply, and
When you might anticipate peak unconventional production in North America.
Based on these predictions, and ignoring both short-term market forces and disruptive long-term market changes, when do you anticipate the US once again relying heavily ( >50%) on oil supply from outside North America?
To make these estimates, I expect you to use a three-pronged approach that includes:
A download and review of raw EIA data.
Peer-reviewed reports and literature THAT ARE PROPERLY CITED outline both expected reserves AND INCORPORATING ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTIES.
Detailed Quantitative analysis (by integrating Hubbert style methods or creaming curves for making your estimates for each of your questions above).
The Report should be no less than 3 and no more than 10 pages. Grading will be based on addressing each of the questions above using the three techniques suggested, writing clarity, and logic. Your first page should include an ABSTRACT that contains a clear, focused hypothesis.