STRATEGIC ESTIMATE

Strategic Estimate

Strategic Estimate

 

Purpose. Update the Caucasus Regional Strategic Estimate based on hypothetical scenario events that have occurred through December 2019.

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Scenario.

1. There are indications of growing unrest in the Caucasus region. Several signs of this instability include:
• The South Azeri Peoples Army (SAPA) has been active in Azerbaijan since 2016, despite Georgia not being in control of the Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions since 2008, despite Moscow’s recognition of their independence and the presence of sizable military personnel in those areas. Fundamentalists in Iran first supported it, but now it has the backing of the seceding “Ahurastan.”
• Much of Iran’s northern area is no longer under its control. In 2018, the Iranian nation’s “Ahurastan” region, based on ethnicity, declared its independence. The “Ahurastan” region is surrounded by Turkey, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and the Caspian Sea. Early in 2019, “Ahurastan” proclaimed its independence. During the same period, the southwest Iranian provinces seceded to found the “Republic of Luristan.”
• Three countries—Azerbaijan, Iran, and “Ahurastan”—maintain rival claims to oil-producing areas in the Caspian Sea. Starting in October 2019, “Ahurastan” has sporadically supplied cross-border support to SAPA insurgents operating in Azerbaijan’s border regions. Ahurastanian naval boats have engaged Azerbaijani and Turkish oil exploration vessels in the Caspian Sea.
• In November 2019, the Free Karabakh Movement (FKM) attacked the Metsamor nuclear power plant in Armenia.

2. You participate in a joint planning group for EUCOM. The Chief of Staff has instructed the J5 to update the Strategic Estimate for the Caucasus Region in order to bring the Commander up to speed on the situation in the region and serve as the foundation for a commander’s estimate and, if necessary, the development of plans. This is despite the fact that EUCOM has not yet received any tasks from national authorities to start planning.

Last night, members of your planning team published a strategic estimate, which the Chief of Staff examined. The Chief of Staff suggested that a third strategy be devised for the brief and that Ahurastan be included in the regional study.

You must complete the following: • Regional Analysis on Ahurastan, at least two pages long (similar to slides 20–23);
• Create a third choice, and the initial screening should be at least three pages long (similar to slides 34 and 41).

Requirement. Use the final two pages of this document to provide the information.

The majority of the estimate is given to you. The published estimate includes all relevant data, including the goals and interests of neighboring regional nations. Use the data in Scenario Reference Books 1–5 as well to finish this task.

Mention the sources from which you learned the information. Use endnotes or footnotes to cite your sources in accordance with Turabian style; do not use parenthetical citations. This contains exact quotes, paraphrases, and summaries of the texts that were assigned, as well as any allusions to doctrine or extraneous material.

Ahurastan Regional Analysis

population statistics
Religion, History, and Economy
Important People: Prime Minister and President Government Communications
Effects of Different Factors on International Relations
Interest Objectives: Resolving the N-K issue with Armenia
Recent American Programs
COA (probably)
Most hazardous COA
Interest Level in the Results

Create a third option and a screening first.

Briefly described as diplomatic

Detailed information:

Risks in the economy; mitigation measures

Adequate:
Feasible:
Acceptable:
Distinguishable:
Complete:

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