Terrorist Crisis Simulation Week 3 – The Resolution-Discussion

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Two more hostages are dead at the hands of these terrorists. One hostage remains and it is the husband of the pregnant wife getting massive national news attention.

Last night, two suicide bombing attacks occurred in Iraq. Iran, concerned that this is the beginning of a massive Sunni mobilization by ISIL, mobilizes their naval fleet into the Strait of Hormuz.

The Iranian ambassador is insisting that this is within Iran’s sovereignty and nothing more than a show of force to deter ISIL. The Shi’ite dominated Iran is concerned for its safety and has right to pursue its security. Still the president is concerned that Iran may be acting opportunistically and is going to exploit this crisis to choke off the global oil supply that is transported through the Strait of Hormuz.

Based on these new developments, make an argument regarding what action you think the president should take.

The president has specifically asked the class to decide two things – you will vote on the following:

  • Do you send in Seal Team 6 to rescue remaining hostage risking relationship with ally in war on terror in Pakistan?
  • Do you mobilize the U.S. naval fleet risking interdiction with Iran?

The majority opinion, recorded by online vote (link posted by your instructor) will carry. Your instructor will determine the success of the class decisions by coin flip.

On question 1, if the class has selected “yes” (Send in Seal Team 6) and the instructor flips:

  • Heads: Seal Team 6 rescues the remaining hostage. The president’s poll numbers go up by an additional 5 points.
  • Tails: Half of Seal Team 6 is killed, the remaining hostage has also been killed. Pakistan cuts off all diplomatic relations with the United States.
  • The President’s poll numbers go down by an additional 5 points.

On question 1, if the class has selected “no” (Do Not Send in Seal Team 6) and the instructor flips:

  • Heads: the final hostage is killed. However the public acknowledges that the President refused to negotiate with terrorists. The President’s poll numbers remain unchanged.
  • Tails: the final hostage is killed. The public finds out that the President rejected sending Seal Team 6. The President’s poll numbers go down by an additional 3.

On question 2, if the class has selected “yes” (Mobilize the Navy) and the instructor flips:

  • Heads: The Iranian military backs off. The President is seen as strong and his poll numbers go up by an additional 3 points.
  • Tails: The Iranian Navy fires on United States Navy. The United States Navy prevails. However, the global markets and oil prices are rocked by this news. The President’s poll numbers remain unchanged.

On question 2, if the class has selected “no” (Do Not Mobilize the Navy) and the instructor flips:

  • Heads: Oil continues to flow despite the Iranian Naval mobilization. The President’s poll numbers remain unchanged.
  • Tails: The Iranian Naval fleet blockades all oil shipments. The president is seen as week. Oil prices spike overnight. Gas stations begin running out of gas. There are growing concerns of a looming economic recession. The President’s poll numbers drop by an additional 5 points.

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